blog4th January 2024

The Electrifying Opportunities for EVs in the US for 2024

In 2023, 14 million EVs are expected to be sold worldwide across consumer, public sector and commercial markets. This represents a 35% year-on-year increase, even with concerns in many markets over the pace, quality and reliability of charging solutions. As charging infrastructure expands, longer-range vehicles will come onto the market. Coupled with conventional fuel prices, which remain high in many markets, switching to electric will remain a strategic decision for fleet operators across North America. As well as an increase in EV sales we also expect to see other changes in the EV sector and here are our top four predictions for the year to come:  


01. US EV acceleration to overtake Europe

The EV opportunity is ultimately a global one, but several markets are likely to continue leading in 2024. In recent years, the US government has committed unprecedented investment to electrifying the US vehicle fleet, exceeding funding in European markets.  
 
For example, the US EPA Clean School Bus Program has invested $5 billion to replace existing school buses with zero-emission and low-emission models. With around 600,000 school and transit buses in the US, implementing a reliable charging infrastructure will be crucial to its deployment and success. 
 
A significant driver in this accelerated growth will be funding opportunities presented by the federal government, with major support growing across transit, school bus and other commercial fleets.  

The coming year will also present commercial fleets with the opportunity to electrify at a discount through Clean Commercial Vehicle Credits. Medium and heavy-duty vehicles may take advantage of tax credits up to $40,000, while credits of $7,500 may be awarded for smaller light-duty commercial vehicles.[6] 

The US is not electrifying alone. Canada is also funding electrification, with more than $2.75 billion available from 2021 through 2025 across transit and school bus sectors.[7] 

02. Load management will become a necessity at depots

Meeting the growing demand for EVs in 2024 means developing innovative solutions for load management. EV charger load management is critical to scale the adoption of electric vehicles without sacrificing the electricity grid's reliability in many regions of the country. Load management solutions will help maximize the capacity of existing grid infrastructure by minimizing the necessity of interconnection upgrades at a given depot site. Load management also helps guard against sudden spikes in electricity demand that can overload the grid by rapidly reducing output in response to requests from grid operators.  

In addition to being able to monetize this demand reduction directly, in some instances, depots leveraging load management solutions may also reduce their utility bill demand charges by charging outside of peak demand periods. Where time-of-use rates or other EV tariffs are in place, depots may shift charging to off-peak tariff periods, further shrinking the total cost of ownership of the fleet. 

03. Innovation and investment in battery storage will pick up pace

Battery energy storage has become an increasingly important feature of the energy ecosystem for businesses with EV fleets, with many looking to support grids with flexibility services. According to a recent McKinsey report, the global battery energy storage system market is expected to reach between $120 billion and $150 billion by 2030, more than double its size today.  

EO is actively engaging with more and more customers on installing batteries to play a part in their supply and load management solutions, offering an alternative to conventional grid connections. We expect demand for battery storage elements to grow strongly over the coming year. 

04. An open ecosystem will become ever more important in 2024

Moving to EVs should be simple, reliable and accessible; this is why industry standards will become ever more necessary in the coming year.  

The importance of industry standards like the Open Charge Point Protocol (OCPP) as an open-source communication standard for EV charging stations and network software companies demonstrates this. OCPP is designed to be a free, open-source, and easy-to-implement communications standard that ensures all participants speak the same language. As a result, OCPP has become the global benchmark for interoperability throughout the EV charging industry. At EO, we believe open standards are now critical for effective and scalable infrastructure.  

We've learned from other sectors that proprietary solutions don't work and have already seen how the interoperability of different EV charging systems causes issues.  

There’s a real complexity risk without standardizing protocols, device management, transaction handling, security and smart charging functionalities. The future of the EV industry lies in open-source collaboration. 

In 2024, there will still be hurdles to overcome in fleet electrification, particularly as fleets begin to scale their effort beyond the pilot phase. However, with unprecedented levels of investment, we will see innovations readily available on the market. Both the public and private sector must work together to enable energy management, leverage creative onsite generation and other capacity solutions and advocate for agnostic chargers and charge management platforms that leverage industry standards. Together, we can make these components the future of fleet electrification.   

EO Charging US 2024 predictions